Lithium-ion batteries could soon grab a significant share of the hybrid and electric vehicle advanced battery market according to one industry expert.
Dr Menahem Anderman, the President of Advanced Automotive Batteries, believes that lithium-ion batteries could grow to represent 21 per cent of the advanced battery market by 2011. His projection, which excludes the Chinese market, engineering prototypes and battery packs made from 18650 consumer cells, would represent a $321million market in 2011 compared to the projected $1,232million market for NiMH batteries.
His forecast can be divided into application segments with Anderman seeing the greatest opportunities in the mini EV and extended range electric vehicle market.
By 2015, he believes that full hybrids such as the Prius will represent the top lithium-ion business opportunity, followed by moderate hybrids and light electric vehicles.
At this point in time, lithium-ion batteries are facing a number of technical and cost challenges. For his part, Anderman ran a series of net present value analyses based on a number of petrol prices, fuel saved and packed costs and found that: micro hybrids make economic sense for the consumer on a fuel savings basis when petrol is at $5 a gallon in the USA; that mild, moderate and strong hybrids make economic sense when petrol reaches $7 a gallon; and that plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, extended range electric vehicles and full electric vehicles make sense when prices hit $10 a gallon.
Anderman has now called on the California Air Resources Board and the ZEV to mandate the main market driver for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.
