The development of electric cars is a marathon not a sprint – that’s the verdict of Volkswagen AG Chairman of the Board of Management Professor Dr Martin Winterkorn as he announced the introduction of the company’s first electric vehicles based on the Up! new small family in 2013.
He believes that within a decade, Volkswagen will offer “significant numbers” of pure electric cars at affordable prices that offer the range expected by customers.
According to Winterkorn, the industry is experiencing its worst crisis in decades despite the fact that Volkswagen’s sales rose by six per cent in June and its share of the global new vehicle market has increased to 11 per cent in the first quarter of 2009. Despite this, Winterkorn believes there is “no reason for euphoria” but believes his company’s strategy is on track.
He states that electrification will involve a huge technological upheaval and while in the past customers tended to look at horsepower and cylinders in the engine they are now focusing on fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) values.
In terms of VW and the electric car, Winterkorn says it estimates a global share of 1-1.5 per cent in pure electric vehicles in 2020. That penetration is likely to be significantly higher in big cities and certain regions, including China.
He describes the current trend as “electro-hype” with experts and politicians tumbling over each other with forecasts leading to massively false expectations by customers. He believes this development is dangerous because it means risking potential customers.
In order to succeed, he believes electric cars face three major challenges: energy capacity and recharge time of current batteries; they have to move away from the eco niche to become mass market; and there must be a corresponding infrastructure in place.
Overall he says that electric alone is not enough and that for the next 15-20 years diesel and petrol cars will continue to dominate in Europe. In other markets he sees the likes of flex-fuel, CHG and LPG playing a major role. VW meanwhile will continue to focus on improving the efficiency of the combustion engine while at the same time driving the electrification of the powertrain in a step-by-step approach first through hybridisation, then through plug-in capabilities and then full electrification.
