The eyes of the world may be on developments in electric and hybrid car engineering, but according to Cleantech research firm Pike Research, it is a surge in the number of natural gas vehicles on the road that we should be looking out for.
It has forecast a growth in natural gas vehicles on the road worldwide to 17million units by 2015 – that’s an increase from the 9.7million reported in 2008. It has also forecast that the market will grow globally at a rate of 5.5 per cent to reach just over three million vehicles by 2015.
Currently, the top five markets for natural gas vehicles are Pakistan, Argentina, Iran, India and Brazil with Pike Research anticipating that India will be the fastest growing market at a rate of 18.4 per cent between 2008 and 2015. This will be largely due to the availability of refuelling stations as well as the expansion of government emission rules in large Indian cities.
The US natural gas vehicle market is expected to remain dominated by fleet sales to government and commercial customers – around 89 per cent by 2015. It predicts the increase to reach 17.7 per cent between 2008 and 2015 – that translates to 31,347 vehicles, including conversions, sold in 2015.
The key drivers in growth are expected to be: economics, as the fuel has to be cheaper than petrol/diesel to recover the additional cost of the vehicle; environmental benefits with substantially lower greenhouse gas emissions; energy security as most natural gas is used to reduce the reliance on imported crude oil; and availability with more vehicles introduced to the market.
