£6.50 for a loaf of bread, £7 for a box of cornflakes and £18 for a pint of beer – these are the eye watering prices we could face in 2030 unless urgent action is taken to prevent dangerous climate change, Friends of the Earth has suggested.

The figures were published today by environmental charity, 40 days before UN climate talks kick off in Copenhagen.

The price of staple foods is set to rocket four and a half times above normal inflation as changing climate puts extra stress on land and resources around the world, exacerbating the existing food crisis. Yields of crops like wheat, rice and maize will fall and patterns of trade and consumption would be affected, the charity said.

Spiralling costs of basics like bread, rice and pasta will mean that many million more people will struggle to buy enough food to keep healthy.

The figures have been produced by Ray Hammond, a leading expert in predicting future social and economic trends and Visiting Lecturer at the University of Oxford’s Institute for the Future of Humanity. He modelled the future prices of consumer foodstuffs for Friends of the Earth using previous price hikes recorded by the World Bank and projections by the International Food Policy Research Institute.

Projected prices of other staple foods in 2030 include; £17.91 for a 1 litre corn oil (now £1.99, which would be £3.98 by 2030 with normal inflation)and £15.21 for 1 kg of basmati rice (now £1.69, expected to be £3.38 with normal inflation.

As pressure mounts ahead of the United Nations climate change talks in Copenhagen, the report serves as a reminder that global warming is expected to hit ordinary Britons hard, as well as causing storms, droughts, famine and floods that will affect the developing world.

In his report, Hammond echoes Friends of the Earth’s call for a strong and fair agreement in Copenhagen, in which rich countries promise to cut their emissions by at least 40 per cent by 2020 without carbon offsetting, and pledge sufficient public funds to enable poor nations to develop cleanly and adapt to the impacts of climate change. He also advises urgent political action to address the underlying causes of the food crisis.

Ray Hammond said: “Rich countries must take strong and decisive action to propel us towards a strong and fair agreement in Copenhagen in December – otherwise many people in the UK will face a Dickensian struggle to afford food and millions of people in the developing world will be condemned to early deaths.”

Friends of the Earth Head of Climate Mike Childs said: “This vision of life in 2030 shows that life with climate change won’t be pretty, it’ll be pricey – the cost of simple foods like bread and rice will rocket and millions more people will go hungry here in the UK alone.

“Rich nations must also slash their emissions first and fast – cutting them by at least 40 per cent by 2020, without offsetting, to get us on the road to a strong and fair climate agreement which will safeguard the future of our planet and everyone on it.”

“The root causes of the food crisis must also be tackled. We need urgent political action to create fair global food supplies and make farming planet-friendly – from field to fork our food currently creates up to half of all greenhouse gas emissions.”

Friends of the Earth is demanding that the Government changes its approach to climate change with its Demand Climate Change campaign. The green campaign group is asking everyone to sign its international petition to world leaders for a strong and fair climate deal at http://www.demandclimatechange.org/.

Europe is moving forward with plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from vans. The European Commission has today proposed tough new CO2 cap for vans at just 175g/km of CO2 or at least 42.8mpg by 2016.

The new law would mean that van makers would need to ensure that the average fleet emission level was below 175g/km phased-in from 2014 to 2016, in the same way which carmakers are required to meet a fleet average of 130g/km of CO2 by 2012. There would also been a long term emission reduction target of 135 g/km by 2020. Vanmakers would pay a penalty for every gram of CO2 over the limit.

Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas said: “This legislation is another important step for the EU in combating climate change and reaffirms the EU’s commitment and leadership ahead of the Copenhagen conference. As well as ensuring the vans sector make a fair contribution to efforts to tackle climate change it will also generate important fuel-savings for consumers and stimulate innovation in industry which will enable them to take full advantage of the transition to a low-carbon economy. ”

However the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) has expressed concern over the timescale for the implementation of the CO2 cap.

“Vans are an integral part of the European economy and at a time of economic downturn and belt-tightening, businesses do not have the capacity to invest in new products,” said Paul Everitt SMMT chief executive. “Industry needs sufficient lead times and reasonable targets to provide affordable products. These must be fit for purpose as business tools. In the current economic climate, the EU regulation must maintain the sector’s diversity while encouraging innovation and the move to low carbon models.”

According to the European Commission, light commercial vehicles account for around 12 per cent of the EU’s total carbon emissions each.

US President Barack Obama has announced $3.4billion in grant awards to fund a broad range of smart grid technologies and projects.

Part of the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act, the awards will be matched by industry funding for a total investment worth more than $8billion. Among the major elements of the announcement were:

-         The empowering of consumers to save energy and cut utility bills: $1billion will go towards creating the infrastructure and expanding access to smart meters and customer systems so consumers can save money by programming smart appliances.

-         Integrating and crosscutting across different ‘smart’ components of a Smart Grid: The administration will fund projects that incorporate various components into one system or cut across various project areas – these may include plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, smart meters, smart thermostats and more for a total investment of $2billion.

-         Making electricity distribution and transmission more efficient: Around $400million will be dedicated to several grid modernisation projects across the country that could reduce the amount of power wasted from the time it is produced at a power plant to the time it reaches a house.

-         Building a Smart Grid manufacturing industry: Investments will be made to expand the manufacturing base of companies that can produce smart meters and other smart appliances with a total investment of $26million. 

It is hoped that the investment will help achieve a number of goals including creating higher grid reliability and reducing power outages; installing more than 850 sensors that will cover 100 per cent of the US grid and make it possible for operators to better monitor conditions and prevent disturbances; and the installation of more than 200,000 smart transformers that will make it possible for power companies to replace units before they fail.

It is estimated by the Electric Power Research Institute, that smart grid technologies will help reduce electricity use by more than four per cent by 2030.

Add Australia to the list of countries keen to be at the forefront of plug-in hybrid technology.

The country’s CSIRO and Victorian energy distributor SP AusNet have begun a three-month road trial of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles with staff from SP AusNet to use the vehicles for their daily drive to work and for leisure purposes.

Engineers from CSIRO modified Toyota Prius vehicles, removing the OEM battery pack and instead installing a larger 6kWh, 30Ah NiMH battery pack with five times the capacity of the original. This, alongside a battery charger, allows the cars to plug into and charge with electricity from the grid or from on-site renewable energy sources.

According to Dr Phillip Paevere, CSIRO energy transformed flagship scientist, the road trial will collect extensive information as to how the existing technology could be used for a new application. The vehicles will monitor the travel patterns of different users with the residual power left in the car at the end of the day made available for other uses. When not being used, the car in the driveway could even become a large battery and energy source for the house.

A spokesman for SP AusNet, Sean Sampson, said the trial will allow for a thorough analysis into what electricity demands are likely to be when plug-in electric vehicles are connected to the network.

The road trial is the first phase in an analysis of the potential for using plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in Australian homes. The technology will also be used in the home energy system of CSIRO’s zero emission house project.

Europe’s most popular car just got greener – as Volkswagen makes its new version of the Golf available to order.

VW originally announced the most efficient Golf ever back in July, which emits a class leading 99g/km and achieves 74.3mpg combined. The new Golf BlueMotion uses the Golf’s 1.6litre TDI common rail engine with 105PS and maximum torque of 250Nm developed at 1,500rpm as its basis with its engine allowing the car to run from 0-62mph in just 11.3 seconds and achieve a top speed of 118mph.

So with such dynamic performance, how has the Golf BlueMotion achieved such environmental improvements?

The BlueMotion boasts a number of additional features including a start/stop system, regenerative braking, longer gear ratios, hill holds, low rolling resistance tyres and a malfunction computer that recommends gear changes for maximum economy.

The new car is also fitted with a sports styling kit that improves aerodynamics and helps to boost efficiency. The kit includes sports bumpers, side skirts, an enlarged rear roof spoiler, alloy wheels, cherry red rear lights, chrome grille louvres and BlueMotion badges. To help further reduce the weight of the vehicle, the new Golf BlueMotion comes with a tyre repair kit rather than a spare wheel.

The VW Golf BlueMotion costs £17,325 with estimates suggesting a driver covering 10,000 miles a year will save more than £120 a year in fuel costs alone.

A new UK car manufacturer, Axon Automotive has previewed its plug-in hybrid electric vehicle at the Milton Keynes Science Festival. The vehicle combines full electric mode for short distance travel and uses a petrol or bioethanol powered engine for long distance or motorway travel.

Axon Automotive uses revolutionary manufacturing techniques to make carbon fibre technology, which has been associated with racing cars, affordable for eco cars. “By designing light cars and giving them good aerodynamics you can radically lower vehicle emissions,” says Axon’s Managing Director, Dr Steve Cousins.

“As a plug-in hybrid we have no limitation on range but we can maximise the benefits of electrics day to day without the cost and weight of large batteries,” he added.

The Axon car is built with space for two adults plus room for ample amounts of luggage. Much of the car is made from recycled material or can itself be recycled to minimise environmental impact. The carbon fibre body can be recycled, while the car has fashion house designed seating is made from recycled fabrics (jeans and recycled pinstriped suits) and door panels are made from recycled carbon fibre to make the car as green as possible.

This holistic approach to car manufacturer is continued through the Axon Automotive’s consideration of carbon emissions generated at the electrical source that drives the car. Axon insists that electric powered vehicles should be clear about the emissions from the electricity they use, rather than simply equating electricity use as being zero emission operation. “We have had our greenhouse gas emissions calculated to include typical UK powerstation emissions when driving in electric mode. The result gives us just under 50g/CO2 per km for the mix of electric and petrol used in the Government test. This is just half the level needed for free annual road tax in UK for this car,” explains Cousins.

Axon Automotive Ltd. is the only UK owned car company, focused on the production of plug-in hybrid vehicles. Funded through UK Technology Strategy Board and private investment, the carmaker aims for the first Axon car to go on sale in 2011 with full production in 2012. The manufacturing roll-out will be via small factories in UK and in Europe including Spain, France, Ireland, Denmark, and Holland.

The Green Piece Column: Tuesday 27 October

With the global recession making drivers think about their wallets and the environment ahead of power and good looks, a green car race has emerged with manufacturers keen to offer more fuel efficient and environmentally friendly vehicles than their rivals.

So who is leading the green car race? In part one of our summary, we look at the leaders and the chasing pack.

The green car race – the leaders

Toyota: When the Toyota Prius originally went on sale in 1997, it was the world’s first mass-produced hybrid car, meaning the Japanese automaker effectively stole a march on its rivals. The vehicle scooped the Car of the Year award in Japan in its debut year, and the third generation of the model took the prize again in 2009. Toyota has now built a plug-in version of the Prius, which may again see the company beat its rivals to the punch on name value alone.
Crucially, Toyota’s success doesn’t revolve solely around the Prius. It has pushed several hybrid cars in the USA including the Camry Hybrid and Highlander Hybrid, and a number of luxury hybrid vehicles through its Lexus brand. In Europe, the likes of the Yaris and the iQ have kept average fuel consumption levels low, while Toyota is working on several new concepts such as the FT-EV (see article) which has a claimed range of 50miles per charge.

Honda: On its launch in 2003, the Honda Civic Hybrid was seen as the first true competitor for the Prius with its continuously variable transmission and Integrated Motor Assist and won the International Engine of the Year “one litre to 1.4litre” size category award for three years straight from 2002 through 2004 as well as the “Best Fuel Economy” category for 2003 and 2004.

When sales of the Civic Hybrid started to flag, Honda introduced the Insight Hybrid earlier this year. It also plans to introduce the CR-Z (see article), which has been dubbed the world’s first hybrid sports car; a hybrid version of the Fit; and both the EV-N and Skydeck concepts. However, arguably Honda’s most innovative vehicle to date is the FCX Clarity, the world’s first dedicated platform hydrogen vehicle.

Volkswagen: German manufacturer Volkswagen has taken an alternative route to early success in the green car race by placing the emphasis on clean diesel models, which it has been marketing in Europe since 2003. It developed turbocharged direct injection technology for diesel engines and has a wide range of TDI powertrains. The 2009 clean-diesel Jetta TDI for example, has scooped numerous ‘Green Car of the Year’ titles and reduces emissions by 90 per cent.

Despite focusing on clean-diesel technologies, VW has not been immune to alternative fuels. It has teamed up with Sanyo to develop a hybrid battery system with future VW models to be constructed with hybrid concepts. It has also launched flexible fuel vehicles in Brazil.

The green car race – the chasing pack

Nissan: Until recently Nissan’s only contribution to the green car explosion was the Altima Hybrid, produced in collaboration with Toyota. However, Nissan has since embraced the need to drive down emissions and placed its focus firmly on electric cars.

As part of a partnership with Renault, Nissan will launch the LEAF in Europe and North America in 2010 before a global release in 2012 (see article). The company is also working on the radical Land Glider Concept (see article) which looks and feels like a mixture between a car, a motorcycle and an aeroplane; and the Nissan Nuvu, a compact all-electric city car with solar panels that can travel 80miles on a single charge.

General Motors: Having been universally panned for its disregard of the EV1 and failing to get off the ground with a group of comparatively unsuccessful hybrids, the new GM is aiming to hit back with the Chevrolet Volt (see article) – arguably the most eagerly anticipated green car in North America.

The Volt will launch in 2010 and is a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle that can travel for up to 40miles on electricity alone, satisfying the daily commute for 75 per cent of Americans. After 40miles it reverts to a small four-cylinder internal combustion engine that creates electricity on-board to extend the Volt’s range to more than 300 miles.

Ford: The bulk of Ford’s green efforts have centred on flex-fuel vehicles with E85 versions of the Focus and Mondeo among its most successful models. In 2005, it launched the Ford Escape Hybrid – the first hybrid electric SUV. In March 2009 however, its efforts really picked up pace as Ford launched to the US market the Ford Fusion Hybrid and the Milan Mercury Hybrid, both as 2010 models. The company has enjoyed a 73 per cent increase in hybrid sales this year (see article).

In the next edition of The Green Piece we’ll examine the emerging contenders, including the likes of Tesla Motors and Fisker Automotive.

Faye Sunderland

How much of a problem is Global Warming? If a recent survey is to be believed, then it doesn’t bother some of us as much as it used to.

According to the latest national survey by the Pew Research Centre for the People & the Press, only 57 per cent of Americans said that there is solid evidence that global temperatures are rising – that’s down from 71 per cent in 2008. What’s more is that only 35 per cent see global warming as a very serious problem – down from 44 per cent in April, 2008.

The survey was conducted among 1,500 adults and found that just 36 per cent believe global temperatures are rising as a result of human activity such as burning fossil fuels – that’s down from 47 per cent last year.

So is this downturn in belief politically based?

Well, according to the survey just 53 per cent of independents now see solid evidence of global warming compared to 75 per cent in April, 2008. Republicans have always been highly sceptical of global warming and have now become even more so with only 35 per cent saying they now see solid evidence of rising temperatures, down from 49 per cent in 2008. Belief among Democrats has also fallen but remains high overall – 75 per cent today compared with 83 per cent last year.

Despite these questions, the survey found that there is still more support than opposition for a policy that sets limits on carbon emissions with half of Americans favouring limits on carbon emissions even if this may lead to higher energy prices. However, the issue has not sunk in with the public at large with just 14 per cent saying they have heard of the cap-and-trade policy that would set carbon dioxide emission limits.

What do you think of these trends? How much of a concern is global warming in your opinion? Leave a comment below with your thoughts.

The first round of projects funded under the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) has been announced with 37 energy research projects to benefit from a total of $151million in funding.

In July this year, the Department of Energy (DOE) announced that the ARPA-E has received around 3,500 submissions for the cash available with a second set of funding opportunities to be announced later this year.

Among the projects to benefit are an effort to develop new metal-air batteries using advanced ionic liquids with 6-20 times the energy density of lithium-ion batteries at just one third of the cost; and a project to produce a flow of gasoline directly from sunlight and CO2 using a symbiotic system of two organisms.

In all, the grants are spread across 17 states with 43 per cent of the cash going to small businesses, 35 per cent to educational institutions and 19 per cent to large corporations.

Five vehicle projects will benefit – these are:

Advanced power semiconductor and packaging: A grant of $6,733,383 has been given to Delphi Automotive and International Rectifier to work with Oak Ridge National Laboratory to bring a new power electronics technology to the prototype stage. The aim is to deliver power from batteries to electric motors with up to 50 per cent more efficiency.

High energy permanent magnets for hybrid vehicles and alternative energy: A consortium between the University of Delaware, the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Northeastern University, Virginia Commonwealth University, Ames Laboratory and Electron Energy Corporation hope to develop world record performance permanent magnet materials which are critical components in advanced motors for hybrids and electric vehicles. They have received a grant of $4,462,162.

Lightweight Thermal Energy Recovery System: A grant of $2,655,174 will help General Motors to develop a shape memory alloy energy recovery system that converts waste heat from car engines to electricity.

Wave disk engine: With $2,540,631 Michigan State can complete a prototype development of a gas-fuelled electricity generator that is said to be five times more efficient than traditional auto engines and could replace the back-up generator technology used in plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.

Quaternary phosphonium based hydroxide exchange membranes: With $760,705 the University of California at Riverside will develop fuel cell membranes that are more tolerant to abuse and are more ion-conductive and durable.

When most people think of US Army vehicles, they naturally picture gas guzzling tanks or far from fuel efficient patrol vehicles. However, that may be about to change.

Bright Automotive Inc has launched eSolutions in an effort to accelerate worldwide electrification and overall platform efficiency and at the heart of the new programme is a newly announced contract from the US Army TACOM to conduct a demonstration project on a low-cost plug-in hybrid electric solution for non-tactical military vehicles.

The eSolutions support team will work with the US Army to demonstrate the parallel hybrid technology for military non-combat use. They will also work with the Army to demonstrate the ability of plug-in hybrid vehicles to deliver power to the grid as part of a $1.4million contract.

The focal point of the agreement will be the Bright IDEA, which is a multi-purpose, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle that is aimed at commercial and government fleets. Through the eSolutions programme, Bright will offer expert guidance on vehicle design, engineering, energy storage, propulsion, conversions and general consulting.

Indeed the announcement of the Army contract comes just one week after Bright revealed improved performance figures for the IDEA thanks to a new 13kWh battery pack. The IDEA can now travel for 40 miles in electric vehicle mode and then switch to a class leading 36mpg charge sustaining hybrid mode. The initial IDEA had an all-electric range of 30 miles.