We are breaking our own rule for this week only as we bring you our weekly Green Piece article a day early to coincide with the kick off of the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit…
Today marks the start of the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit, which will last for two weeks and is the latest in a series that trace their origins back to the 1992 Earth summit in Rio.
It is meant to thrash out a successor to the Kyoto protocol with the aim of preventing dangerous global warming, yet this weekend’s Press quoted figures that the summit will rely on 1,200 limousines, 140 private planes and will produce as much carbon dioxide as you would expect from a town the size of Middlesbrough seemingly condemning its efforts before it had even begun. So just what will the summit involve and how likely is it that we will see any serious success?
What is the aim?
With scientists convinced that global warming is a serious issue, there is a need to not only halt the growth of greenhouse gas emissions but to bring them down too. The hope is to keep global warming under the dangerous 2C mark, which would require cuts of 25-40 per cent in emission levels compared to 1990 levels, rising to 80-95 per cent by 2050.
How would the cuts be made?
This is arguably the key issue. Industrialised countries such as the US and the UK currently emit by far the most carbon per person, with emissions from the likes of China and India also rising sharply, although these are generally accepted because of these countries’ need for economic growth. With these developing nations having relatively small carbon footprints and millions of people in deep poverty, they can argue the need to continue to pollute while they improve the lives of their citizens. So the key is to find a balance in the responsibilities.
Who will pay?
This is another contentious issue. Most agree that the poorer countries need help from the richer countries, but it’s vital to find a figure that all parties can accept with estimates varying from $100billion to $400billion a year. There is an argument that in the long term a low carbon economy will be cheaper than the current one, but with time of the essence richer countries will need to pay billions now. Fast emerging economies need an incentive to stop building coal powered plants, and, again, the emphasis is on the richer countries to step in.
Who are the key players?
The US and China are widely accepted as the two key players in negotiations. With Barack Obama’s energy bill stalling in the Senate, US negotiators don’t really know what they can offer and Obama is playing his cards close to his chest, with a 14-20 per cent cut from 2005 carbon emission levels by 2020 seeming to be its best offer. For China, which surpassed the US as the biggest emitter in the world in 2006, a 40 per cent decrease in emissions by 2020 looks to be its best offer, although this would rely on heavy financial support from developed nations to fund clean technologies?
The European Union is likely to take the role of a progressive force in the talks and is offering €100bn per year from rich countries by 2020 to fund climate adaptation, and 95 per cent cuts in its carbon emissions by 2050 (based on 1990 levels) if there’s a global deal. However, this would only involve a 10 per cent reduction by 2020, which has widely been criticised.
As for Britain, it is offering an ambitious 80 per cent cut in emissions by 2050 but its sums have been questioned and it may be sidetracked by squabbles with its European neighbours over funding.
What about carbon credits and deforestation?
The idea of carbon credits has been put forward – however, if this is to cut real emissions, the cap set on the market would need to be tight. Reducing deforestation is important with 40 per cent of all the carbon emitted by human activity coming from razing forests but finding a solution on how to pay people not to cut down trees is complex and one of the key issues of the summit.
What role will green cars play?
Less than 0.1 per cent of the UK’s 26million cars are electric and the sector remains exempt from the carbon trading system. However, this lack of emphasis on transport emissions will change with the United Nations indicating to Brazil that it will include biofuels in the offsetting regime between the developed and developing world. The entry of biofuels into the system will encourage Brazil to increase its sugar production with sugar cane derived ethanol cutting around 90 per cent of carbon emissions of petrol. The European Union has already established a goal for 10 per cent of all petrol and diesel sales to be biofuel by 2020.
Will a deal be reached?
It is generally accepted that a minor miracle would be needed for a deal in Copenhagen. More likely is that we see some progress on deforestation with a happy medium reached for now that would allow a real deal to be struck in 2010.
Faye Sunderland
