The COP 15 climate conference, which kicked off yesterday in Copenhagen, may be focusing on how to reduce emissions but before a solution can be found the true scale of the problem must be addressed – and unfortunately it seems that problem is only going to continue to mount.

According to a new assessment from Ecofys and Climate Analytics, working with Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the combined effect of the latest national pledges and commitments to offset greenhouse gas emissions, which have been offered in the weeks leading up to the summit, would result in greenhouse gas emissions doubling 1990 levels by 2040. Indeed, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels could exceed 650ppm by 2100 with total greenhouse gas concentrations close to 800ppm.

The group developed the Climate Action Tracker, which quantifies the projected greenhouse gas emissions of individual countries and plots the consequences of the reduction strategies with data that will be updated as the climate summit talks progress.

The most widely accepted reduction strategy is to limit warming to 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels with a warming limit of 0.2°C per decade. Originally, reports suggested the peak of emissions could occur as early as 2015, with a sharp decline to 50-85 per cent of 1990 emissions.

However, the latest analysis suggests that emissions will peak around 2040 before declining slowly if the current reduction commitments are met.

Furthermore, scientific support for the 2°C warming limit is in question partly because of the acceleration of climate change since the AR4 was published in 2007. According to many climate scientists this warming limit would only have a 50 per cent chance of preventing the most catastrophic effects of climate change.

We’ll continue our coverage of the COP15 event throughout the week – and don’t forget to check out our latest Green Piece Column to bring you up to speed on the purpose and goals of the summit.