Electric cars, plug-in hybrid and range-extended electric vehicles will account for around 20 per cent of the global market for light vehicles by 2030, IHS Global Insight’s Automotive Group predicts.
The group, made up of industry expert analysts from across the world reports in its latest white paper, ‘Battery Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles: The Definitive Assessment of the Business Case’ that plug-in hybrids will have an 8.6 per cent market share and a 9.9 per cent share for battery-electrics.
“The advantages of electric vehicles are numerous – the multiplicity of energy sources, reduced emissions, reduced noise, the possibility of reduced operating costs – but so too are the challenges,” said Philip Gott, director of Automotive Science and Technology in IHS Global Insight’s Automotive Services Group.
The report contradicts some less optimistic research from fellow analysts The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) who concluded that electric cars would remain to pricey in the short term (see story) to really begin to establish a market share. Likewise, even Toyota has voiced its skepticism (see story) over the potential appeal to the market of plug-in hybrids thanks to high costs.
The new report does however acknowledge that its market share predictions are based on the assumption that these vehicles will overcome some significant problems. The development of powerful, long-lasting batteries and ready access to a reliable power grid for recharging remain the critical issues for the success of the battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle of the future, according to the white paper. In addition to technology limitations, high costs and expectations of consumers’ accustomed to internal combustion engine vehicles must also be overcome before the plugged-in vehicles achieve significant acceptance.
Gott said the major challenges to be overcome if the vehicles are to be successful in the marketplace are consumers’ preference for long range, versatile vehicles; cost and uncertainty about battery life; perceptions of safety hazard; and adequacy of the power grid.
The report splits electric cars into two kinds: pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) powered only by an on-board battery recharged from the electric power grid, and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) that combine an internal combustion engine with a battery that can also be charged from the grid and run for as long as 100 miles before needing the internal combustion engine.
BEVs, the study concludes, will find a natural home in urban environments, like those found in the global mega cities, while PHEVs will play a transitional role in suburban environments where range anxiety is a real concern. At issue is whether consumers will continue to use personal motor vehicles for work and play as they do today, or whether there will be strong moves away from the extensive use of privately owned cars in urban areas, accompanied by significant third-party influence changing consumer attitudes towards cars and how they are used.
The pathway for commercialisation for these new generation vehicles highlights the needed support of governments and the utility companies. Consumers are expected early on to be more attracted to PHEVs because of their range and convenience, the study said, but as the infrastructure evolves, many early urban PHEV owners will realize they are running predominantly in full electric mode and a large-scale switch to BEVs could begin.
For a copy of the abstract of the white paper, “Battery Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles: The Definitive Assessment of the Business Case,” go to www.ihsglobalinsight.com/pluggedin.
