A team of researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research believe that the Copenhagen Accord may fail to deliver in two areas.
Not only do they suggest that the current national emissions reduction pledges will not limit global warming to 2C, but they also imply a global mean temperature increase of more than 3C.
The researchers believe that the countries’ ambitions for reducing emissions will see global yearly emissions of greenhouse gases increase by 10-20 per cent above current levels and reach amounts equivalent to 47.9 to 53.6 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide by 2020. This in turn would result in a greater than 50 per cent chance that warming will exceed 3C by 2100. If they want to be on track to be below the 2C target by 2020 then global emissions should be no more than 40-44 GtCO2-eq, according to the authors.
As part of their analysis, the researchers looked into loopholes, particularly relating to surplus allowances and found that if a country reduces its emissions more than its target stated in the Kyoto Protocol it can use these allowances later. This makes it likely that countries will make use of surplus allowances from now until 2020.
To calculate their figures, the researchers used national emission estimates from the pledges submitted as part of the Accord along with previous announcements from countries that did not submit estimates.
