Solar power could provide up to a quarter of the world’s electricity needs by 2050, new analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows.
This important finding emerges from two new analyses by the IEA entitled the Solar Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) roadmaps, launched today in Valencia/Spain, during the Mediterranean Solar Plan Conference hosted by the Spanish presidency of the EU. In these roadmaps it is projected that solar electricity could represent up to 20 to 25 per cent of global electricity production by 2050.
“It is particularly appropriate to present the two solar roadmaps in Valencia today, given that Spain has taken a leading role globally in promoting solar power and other forms of renewable energy,” said Mr. Tanaka. “The combination of solar photovoltaics and concentrating solar power offers considerable prospects for enhancing energy security while reducing energy-related CO2 emissions by almost six billion tonnes per year by 2050.”
The roadmaps detail the technology milestones that would make this target possible, highlighting that the two technologies will deploy in different yet complementary ways: photovoltaic (PV) mostly for on-grid distributed generation in many regions and CSP (also known as solar thermal energy) largely providing dispatchable electricity at utility scale from regions with brightest sun and clearest skies. PV also helps provide energy access off grid in rural areas. Together, PV and CSP could generate 9 000 Terawatt hours of power in 2050.
Producing green electricity will be important not only to meet rising electricity demands but to ensure that electric cars can truly be called ‘zero emission’. The development of renewable electricity sources is currently the missing link between the carbon claims and reality for electric vehicles.
Spain is a leading producer of solar electricity thanks to its sunny weather and federal investment into the sector. In fact, thanks to investment into wind powered electricity too, Spain actually produces more electricity than it needs but due to poor cross-network connectivity, the country is unable to sell the capacity to other countries and much is sadly wasted.
Speaking of the importance of developing a market for solar electricity, Tanaka added: “This decade is crucial for effective policies to enable the development of solar electricity. Long-term oriented, predictable solar-specific incentives are needed to sustain early deployment and bring both technologies to competitiveness in the most suitable locations and times.”
With effective policies in place, PV on residential and commercial buildings is projected to achieve grid parity – i.e. with electricity grid retail prices – by 2020 in many regions. PV will become competitive at utility-scale in the sunniest regions by 2030 and provide 5 per cent of global electricity.
The IEA expects CSP to become competitive for peak and mid-peak loads by 2020 in the sunniest places if appropriate policies are adopted. Its further expansion will depend on the development of dedicated transport lines that will bring CSP electricity to a greater number of large consumption centres.
Thanks to thermal storage, CSP can produce electricity around the clock and will become competitive with base load power by 2025 to 2030. North America is projected to be the largest producer of CSP electricity, followed by North Africa and India.
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