It seems the US is still a long way from gaining a stranglehold on its increasing greenhouse gas emission output with new predictions suggesting total emissions will expand by four per cent from 2005 to 2020.
According to the fifth National Communication on US climate change actions submitted by the US Department of State to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, greenhouse gas emissions will expand from 7,109Tg CO2 Eq to 7,416Tg CO2 Eq without a cap and trade programme and other complementary policies. However, CO2 emissions are expected to fall over the same period by 1.5 per cent based on updates of the US Energy Information Administration’s AEO 2009 report.
The projections are based on a “business as usual” scenario and incorporate major policies that were in place as of March 31, 2009, including the Energy Independence Security Act of 2007.
A large part of the emissions growth will be driven by HFCs with demand for refrigeration and air conditioning expected to increase with HFCs used as alternatives to ozone-depleting substances.
This has prompted calls for rapid action on HFCs with Micronesia suggesting the Montreal Protocol treaty be used to phase out HFCs as the most important fact-action strategy to save the island. If they are not aggressively phased out then they could contribute to up to one third or more of total global warming.
