Demand for electric and hybrid vehicles may be ‘overhyped’ according to the latest research from industry analysts J.D Power and Associates.
A new study from the firm suggests that combined global demand for battery electric cars and hybrids will account for 5.2 million vehicles in 2020, or just 7.3 per cent of 70.9 million total vehicles forecasted to sell in that year.
For comparison, global sales of these types of vehicles in 2010 are forecasted to total 954,500 vehicles, or 2.2 percent of the 44.7 million vehicles projected to be sold by the end of 2010.
The report, titled ‘Drive Green 2020: More Hope than Reality’ concludes that demand will not grow at the level predicted by some car makers and industry figures, simply because it will be difficult to convince large numbers of consumers to switch fossil-fuelled cars to an alternatively fuelled vehicles. According to the report, consumer migration to alternative powertrain technologies will most likely require a significant increase in the global price of petroleum-based fuels by 2020 and/or a substantial breakthrough in green technologies that would reduce costs and/or an improvement in consumer confidence and a coordinated government policy to encourage consumers to purchase these vehicles.
Based on currently available information, the report concludes that none of these scenarios are believed to be likely during the next 10 years.
“While considerable interest exists among governments, media and environmentalists in promoting HEVs and BEVs, consumers will ultimately decide whether these vehicles are commercially successful or not,” said John Humphrey, senior vice president of automotive operations at J.D. Power and Associates. “Based on our research of consumer attitudes toward these technologies—and barring significant changes to public policy, including tax incentives and higher fuel economy standards—we don’t anticipate a mass migration to green vehicles in the coming decade.”
The research also finds that consumers have a number of concerns about purchasing battery or hybrid vehicles, including that they dislike the look/design of such vehicles, they are worried about the reliability of new technologies, are dissatisfied with overall power and performance, concerned about the time needed to recharge batteries and the cost of such vehicles.
“Many consumers say they are concerned about the environment, but when they find out how much a green vehicle is going to cost, their altruistic inclination declines considerably,” said Humphrey. “For example, among consumers in the US who initially say they are interested in buying a hybrid vehicle, the number declines by some 50 per cent when they learn of the extra $5,000, on average, it would cost to acquire the vehicle.”
To view the “Drive Green 2020: More Hope than Reality” report, click here.
