The debate continues to rage as to how many plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles will be on the roads by 2020.
Now research company Bloomberg New Energy Finance has weighed in on the debate. It reports that the new energy vehicles have the potential to make up nine per cent of US auto sales in 2020 and 22 per cent by 2030 – that’s 1.6million vehicles and four million vehicles, respectively.
The growth will be determined by battery costs and rising petrol prices, according to the prediction, with price expected to be the main limitation in the immediate future. The Chevrolet Volt and the Nissan LEAF will have limited uptake because of their pricing it forecasts.
It looks into which customer segments can afford plug-in vehicles and whether they have suitable range requirements. It also looks at the proportion of consumers within the addressable market that might actually buy one of these vehicles.
According to its estimates, the Chevrolet Volt will be targeted at seven per cent of total US auto sales and the Nissan LEAF at 11 per cent. However, actual sales will be much lower and more limited.
It also suggests there will be a strong sensitivity towards gas prices with rises in electricity prices not likely to affect sales severely.
