A new study by a consortium of 30 organisations has suggested that for the G8 leaders to achieve the overall 80 per cent decarbonisation goal by 2050, a portfolio of advanced powertrains including electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles will be needed.
It suggests that over the next 40 years, no single powertrain will satisfy all key criteria for economics, performance and the environment. Instead there will be a mixed portfolio with battery electric vehicles suited to small cars and short trips; and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles ideal for short trips or where sustainably produced biofuels are available.
Entitled A Portfolio Of Powertrains in Europe, it suggests that the number of passenger cars will rise to 273million in Europe and 2.5billion worldwide by 2050. Therefore, reaching the goals will be unachievable simply through improvements to the traditional internal combustion engine. There is also uncertainty as to whether large amounts of biofuels will be available for passenger cars given the potential demand for biofuels in other sectors such as goods vehicles, aviation, marine, power and heavy industry.
With this in mind, government organisations and others should look into fuel cell electric vehicles, as well as plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles. It suggests it is important to reassess the role of fuel cell electric vehicles given recent technological breakthroughs in fuel cell and electric systems that have now increased efficiency and cost-competitiveness.
Separately, the study suggests that after 2025, the total cost of ownership of all powertrains converges. Battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles are expected to have a higher purchase cost than traditional internal combustion engines but with a lower fuel cost and a lower maintenance cost. Now the study suggests the cost of fuel cell systems will decrease by 90 per cent and component costs of battery electric vehicles by 80 per cent by 2020 thanks to economies of scale and incremental improvements in technology.
