According to a research note on the 2011 outlook for the oil market, analysts at Deutsche Bank expect transportation electrification to be slow while petrol demand remains greater in the near term.
Despite this air of caution, the note does suggest that there is increased confidence in both the pace and breadth of a shift towards a more efficient transportation system.
The positives for petrol demand include strong Chinese car growth in 2010, and in particular during the first half of the year when vehicle sales were up 30 per cent; slower than expected sales of hybrids everywhere in the world except the US; and increasing political animus towards the ethanol tax credit.
However, negatives for petrol demand included rapidly falling lithium-ion battery prices; strong commitments from the Chinese government to support the rapid development of electric vehicles; new US fuel efficiency/emission standards which will not be achievable without a significant penetration of electric vehicles; fuel standards in Europe, Japan and Canada that need widespread adoption of electrics; and more consumer incentives to encourage the purchase of electric cars and plug-in hybrid vehicles.
It also pointed towards an explosion in hybrid sales in Japan during 2010 and strong pre-sales of electrics in the US by commercial enterprises.
