Tuesday 26 April 2011. The Green Piece Column.
Many of us are intrigued by the idea of electric cars. They seem so appealing on paper – zero exhaust emissions, so much cheaper to run than petrol and diesel – so if they can truly conquer the issue of range and lengthy charge times then it’s fair to say most of us would be interested.
However, how many of us have so much faith in the technology that we’d be willing to take a leap of faith and be among the first to drive an electric car?
According to a survey by Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited Global Manufacturing Industry Group, how likely we are to pick up an electric car depends largely on where we live – with the Chinese appearing to have a more open mind to the technology compared to both Europeans and Americans (see article). Here we take a look at the findings of the survey and what we can garner about each region.
China
China stands out with 93 per cent of those surveyed willing to at least consider purchasing an electric vehicle, compared to 69 per cent in Europe and 54 per cent in the USA. Indeed 50 per cent even place themselves in the potential “first movers” category – well ahead of Europe with 16 per cent and the USA with 12 per cent.
The biggest tipping point for Chinese consumers appears to be fuel prices with consumers much more likely to consider an electric car if prices rose to the equivalent of $5.80/gallon. However, if fuel consumption reached 78mpg in a car with an internal combustion engine, then 82 per cent would be less willing to purchase an electric car.
Perhaps most crucially, the vast majority of respondents have requirements that are not currently met by existing electric vehicles. For example, they want range of at least 320km, charging times of two hours or less and widespread public charging stations. Only 18 per cent found charging times of eight hours acceptable.
Other findings revealed that the Chinese are much more knowledgeable about electric cars than their European and American counterparts with almost all of the respondents at least “somewhat knowledgeable” about the vehicles; while those who deemed themselves to be potential first movers described themselves as environmentally-conscious, trendsetters and politically active.
Europe
Similar to China, Europeans also have a tipping point with regard to fuel prices and their interest in electric vehicles. Sixty three per cent of those surveyed said they would be “much more likely” to consider an electric vehicle if fuel prices reached the equivalent of $10.80/gallon.
Another crucial point for Europeans appears to be the price of electric cars. Around 57 per cent said they would expect to pay the same or less for an electric car than they would for one with an internal combustion engine. The majority expect to pay less than €15,000 net of government incentives.
The issue of range is another important factor. More than 80 per cent said that convenience with charge, range and cost are all crucial factors. Indeed three quarters of those surveyed expect an electric car to be able to travel 480km – much higher than currently available; while more than two thirds said that two hours was the longest they would be willing to wait for a battery to recharge.
USA
In America it seems that costs are even more important than elsewhere in the world. Much like Europe and China, fuel price is a significant motivator with 78 per cent willing to consider an electric car if prices reached $5 a gallon. However, more than half of US consumers are not willing to pay any price premium on an electric car… while only eight per cent would pay more than $3,000 extra. Most respondents expect to pay $30,000 or less net government incentives.
Their requirements for the vehicles also surpass existing market expectations. Around 63 per cent expect range up to 300 miles; 60 per cent want charge times of two hours or less; and 53-77 per cent want widespread availability of public charging stations before they buy.
Our Verdict-Adjusting expectations
Perhaps the most important note from the survey is that the majority of Europeans, Americans and the Chinese all recognised that electric vehicles are “better” than internal combustion engines in terms of their environmental impact, government incentives and costs to operate with the Chinese saying they are better in terms of the cost of repair and maintenance and even safety. This represents an important breakthrough for electric vehicles which were previously seen as “inferior” to their internal combustion engine counterparts.
However, there is still a long way to go in terms of meeting motorists’ expectations with regards to range and charge times. Nevertheless, chances are that as the technology develops and public charging infrastructure is put into place, vehicles will begin to meet these goals and adoption will be more widespread. More options on the market should bring prices down, and conventional fuel prices will almost certainly go up, which will naturally lead to an increase in people to turning to electrification.
So it appears that time will be the key to the success of electric cars. For now manufacturers and governments alike have to offer enough incentives to attract interest among early adopters and get the technology on the road – it’s no coincidence that it is China leading the way with incentives and that it’s drivers are the most willing to make the change.
Faye Sunderland.
