Just what role will natural gas play as a transportation fuel in the future? Reports by the MIT and the IEA offer differing views.
The MIT report is focused on the US and concludes that natural gas use in the transportation sector is likely to increase. While compressed natural gas (CNG) will play a role it suggests that the chemical conversion of gas into some form of liquid fuel may be the best pathway to market penetration. Meanwhile, the IEA takes a more conventional approach and assesses the impact on the penetration of vehicles burning gas as their fuel.
According to the MIT, the CNG vehicle market segments should offer an attractive payback period in the near term with high mileage use. However, for light passenger vehicles, even at 2010 petrol prices, the high incremental cost of CNG vehicles means there are longer payback times for the average driver so significant penetration of CNG in the passenger fleet is unlikely in the short-term.
However, it highlights that the potential for natural gas to reduce oil dependence could be increased by conversion into room temperature liquid fuels that can be stored at atmospheric pressure. Of these fuels, methanol is seen as the one that can be produced for a long period at a large industrial scale.
Meanwhile, the IEA believes there are a number of benefits for natural gas vehicles including fuel cost savings and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. However, there are many barriers limiting their growth such as the lack of refuelling infrastructure and the higher purchase price or conversion cost.
As such it expects the uptake of natural gas vehicles to remain limited unless there is significant investment; with the most likely source of demand coming from Asia and Latin America.
