It’s widely accepted that the electrification of the automobile is just around the corner with governments and car manufacturers alike pouring huge resources into making electric cars roadworthy and a match for the vehicles of today.
However, what if existing technology could advance at such a rate that electric cars were no longer needed? Surely that would be the ideal solution, saving huge amounts of money and preventing the inevitable infrastructure overhaul? But is it actually possible? A newly published report by the Committee on the Assessment of Technologies for Improving Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy of the US National Research Council (NRC) investigated the issue.
Cost effective
According to its investigation, combinations of commercially available technologies could potentially reduce fuel consumption vastly over the next 15 years without the need for any compromise to vehicle safety or performance; and without adding too much additional cost for consumers.
Its estimates show that a full combination of improved technologies in medium and large cars with spark ignition engines could reduce fuel consumption by around 29 per cent, while only costing the consumer an additional $2,200. Meanwhile, replacing spark ignition engines with diesel engines and components could yield fuel savings in the region of 37 per cent while adding $5,900 to the average cost of a vehicle. Hybrid engines meanwhile would reduce fuel consumption by 43 per cent but add $6,000 to the average cost of a vehicle.
New technology
The report suggests that spark ignition engines will continue to be the primary source of propulsion in the US over the next 15 years and that new technology will help reduce fuel consumption dramatically.
Among the improvements already introduced is friction reduction; reduced pumping losses through advanced valve-event modulation; cooled exhaust gas recirculation; improved overall engine architecture, including downsizing; and thermal efficiency improvements.
Cylinder deactivation is also seen as one of the most effective methods in reducing fuel consumption. When applied to six cylinder and eight cylinder overhead valve engines, it can reduce fuel consumption by around four- to 10 per cent. Other techniques include turbocharging and downsizing; stoichiometric direct injection; and valve-event modulation, the latter of which not only reduces fuel consumption but can also cause a slight increase in engine performance which offers further opportunities for engine downsizing.
Compression ignition technologies will also have a significant role to play with the committee finding that replacing a 2007 model year SI petrol powertrain with a base-level compression ignition diesel engine with advanced six-speed dual-clutch automated manual transmission would reduce fuel consumption by an incredible 33 per cent.
According to its findings, the advanced level compression ignition diesel engines expected to reach the market in the 2011-2014 timeframe could reduce fuel consumption by an additional 13 per cent in larger vehicles and by seven per cent for small vehicles.
What about hybrid technologies?
The fuel consumption benefit of a full hybrid is thought to be around 50 per cent at an estimated incremental cost of $3,000-$9,000 depending on the vehicle’s size and specific hybrid technology.
At the heart of this improved fuel consumption is a complete vehicle redesign to incorporate features such as improved aerodynamics; low-rolling resistance tyres; and more.
It is thought that most of the improvements in hybrid vehicles over the next 10-15 years will occur from reduced costs of hybrid powertrain components as well as improvements in battery performance such as more lifetime charges.
Our verdict – more than just buying time
Some critics might claim that there should be a wholesale push towards electrification now and that further investments in improving internal combustion engines are a waste of time as their days are numbered.
Certainly improved technologies aren’t going to make the electric car obsolete. On the contrary, battery electric vehicles will almost certainly be marketed on a wide scale within the next 15 years. However, that’s still a significant time period and for battery electric vehicles to take a sizeable market share, infrastructure will need to be in place, consumers will need to be educated as to their benefits and prices will need to slump significantly.
As such, internal combustion engines are here to stay as the dominant force for several decades yet and so taking all the steps possible to drive down their emissions and reduce fuel consumption is vital in the battle against oil dependency and with the need to improve environmental performance. The improvements will also allow electric vehicle technology to advance and prices to drop to the point that they are accessible for a much wider group.
So these investments and new technologies aren’t just about buying time during a transitional phase – they are essential improvements the motoring industry should thrive on for a long time to come.
