A new report commissioned by the Victoria Department of Transport from AECOM, shows that electric vehicle technology could offer the Australian state significant economic benefits by the late 2020s.
Entitled, Forecast Uptake and Economic Evaluation of Electric Vehicles in Victoria, the report looks at the likely penetration of electric vehicles under various scenarios and provides some indication of the likely timelines for uptake in the market.
It considers three scenarios and a base case. The base case assumes there are only internal combustion engines and hybrids available; scenario one assumes there is level one household charging; scenario two assumes there is level one and level two household charging and level two public charging; and scenario three adds electric vehicle stations that offer quick charge of battery deployment to scenario two.
In the vehicle choice scenario, the proportion of market share for new vehicle sales is forecast. It found that the take-up of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles is stronger than that of electric vehicles in the early years due to superior range. It suggest a transition to hybrids in the near term (five-10 years); plug-ins over the medium to long term (10-20 years); and electric vehicles over the long term (15 years plus). The provision of charging infrastructure is thought to have a significant impact on sales of electric vehicles.
As part of its economic and financial analysis, the electric vehicle market is deemed both economically and financially strong in the long run and over a 30year evaluation period the benefits range from $1.8billion in scenario one to $23.4billion in scenario three. This is driven by decreasing vehicle purchase costs of internal combustion engine vehicles and an operating cost savings increase. There will also be large savings in terms of greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions.
To download the full analysis, click here.
