Tuesday 27 September, 2011. The Green Piece Column.
Anyone who thought that we were finally winning the fight against global emissions was given a stark reality check when the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency released its “Long term trend in global CO2 emissions” report.
It revealed that after a decline in global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2009 of one per cent –emissions leapt by more than five per cent in 2010 (download article).
The figure is unprecedented in the last two decades – so what is causing the rise and what can be done about it?
All-time high
The report suggests that global emissions of CO2 have increased by 45 per cent between 1990 and 2010 – reaching an all-time high of 33 billion tonnes last year despite on-going efforts to reduce emissions in industrialised countries.
It seems that efforts in energy efficiency, nuclear energy and the increased contribution of renewable energy are not enough to compensate for the increased demand for power and transport, particularly among developing countries.
Many of the leading industrialised countries are taking positive steps towards meeting the collective Kyoto target of a 5.2 per cent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2012 as a group. This is largely thanks to reductions from economies in transition in the early 90s and more recent reductions in the 2008-2009 recession. However, there are still significant differences between individual countries.
For example, from 1990-2010, the EU-27 countries and Russia reduced CO2 emissions by seven per cent and 28 per cent respectively. However, the USA’s emissions increased by five per cent; while Japan’s remained more or less constant.
Perhaps the most significant statistic however, is that even though the USA’s emissions have increased, its percentage of the world’s emissions has fallen. In 1990 it caused around two thirds of global CO2 emissions – however, this share has now fallen to less than half.
A developing problem
The reason the US’s percentage contribution to global emissions has fallen is because of the continued growth of developing countries. China, for example, saw an increase in global CO2 emissions of 10 per cent; while India’s emissions leapt by nine per cent.
What is notable is that China already emits more CO2 per capita than Italy, Brazil, France and Spain with the trends suggesting it will emit more CO2 per capita than Europe by 2013.
At the heart of these increases in the developing world is increased power generation and road transport. Globally, they account for 40 per cent and 15 per cent of emissions respectively. This need to expand internationally has counterbalanced industrial countries’ efforts to change their energy source mix. Since the Kyoto Protocol period, coal dependence in industrialised countries has been reduced from 25 per cent to 20 per cent of total energy production; while oil dependence has dropped from 38 per cent to 36.5 per cent. Nuclear energy meanwhile has increased from eight per cent to nine per cent; renewable energy from 6.5 per cent to eight per cent; and natural gas from 23 per cent to 27 per cent.
There has been other progress made too in terms of energy savings, including more insulation use in buildings and more energy efficient end-use devices.
Our verdict – Global support needed
The report suggests that industrialised countries are slowly inching their way towards their climate goals. However, it also indicates that a global effort is needed if their efforts are not to be wiped out by increased emissions in developing countries.
In April 2011, the UK Government offered its backing to a global scheme aimed at helping developing countries reduce their CO2 emissions. The World Bank’s Partnership for Market Readiness helps countries develop their own carbon trading systems and allows more investment in green technologies.
However, relatively few developing countries have adopted the public policies needed to encourage widespread use of renewable energy technologies and markets – the exceptions are China and India, which are leaders in renewable sources such as small hydro, small wind, biogas and solar heating; and Brazil, which has built the world’s leading biofuels industry. Yet China is also a clear representative of the global problem for while it boasts the world’s highest installed wind power capacity, it has also placed great emphasis on coal burning technologies.
It could be argued that developing countries have an advantage when it comes to embracing a new energy culture because there is less need to change public habits away from systems they are already accustomed to – they can embrace these technologies without a major overhaul. Indeed by creating their own renewable energy sources, developing countries can reduce their dependence on oil and natural gas creating energy portfolios that are less vulnerable to price rises. Some of these investments can even be less expensive than implementing fossil fuel energy systems.
However, without a clear global policy, these countries may continue to look for a “quick fix”. As such it’s time for governments to come together and realise that for real progress to be made it’s not all about “looking after your own” – it’s also about offering a helpful hand and clear guidance to others too.
Faye Sunderland.
