According to a new report by the National Research Council, theUnited Statesis likely to meet the cellulosic biofuel mandates outlined under the current Renewable Fuel Standard.
The report finds that only in an environment with technological breakthroughs, high oil prices and a high implicit or actual carbon price would biofuels be cost competitive with petrol based fuels. It even suggests that the Renewable Fuel Standard may be ineffective in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions because the effects of biofuels on emissions, depends largely on how they are produced and what land changes occur.
The Renewable Fuel Standard was enacted in 2005 as part of the Energy Policy Act and was then amended in 2007 under the Energy Independence and Security Act. It mandated that by 2022 renewable fuel consumption should include: 15billion gallons of conventional biofuels, mainly corn-grain ethanol, with at least a 20 per cent reduction in lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions; one billion gallons of biomass-based diesel fuel with a lifecycle greenhouse gas threshold of at least 50 per cent; four billion gallons of advanced renewable biofuels, other than ethanol derived from cornstarch, with a threshold of at least 50 per cent; and 16billion gallons of cellulosic biofuels that achieve a lifecycle threshold of at least 60 per cent.
Now the committee believes that while mandates for conventional biofuels and biomass-based diesel fuel should be met, it is uncertain whether targets for cellulosic biofuels will be achieved.
It outlines that the main reason for this is that cellulosic biofuel is a developing industry and there are a number of economic, policy, environmental and social barriers to producing 16-20billion gallons including the high cost compared to petrol based fuels and the large capital investments needed to put production capacity into place.
In addition, the report raises questions over the extent to which using biofuels rather than petroleum will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It outlines that dedicated energy crops will have to be grown to meet the mandate and a land-use change could incur emissions large enough to offset the benefits gained.
