The International Energy Agency (IEA) has launched the latest edition of its World Energy Outlook looking at the global energy system to 2035, highlighting a number of potentially worrying trends.
Among them is that oil demand is predicted to rise from 87million barrels per day in 2010 to 99million barrels per day in 2035. The passenger vehicle fleet is expected to double to almost 1.7billion; while vehicles relying on alternative technologies will expand but take time to penetrate the key markets. The IEA believes that a bold change of policy direction may be necessary because without it, the world will lock itself into an insecure, inefficient and high-carbon energy system.
As part of its analysis, the IEA looked at three global scenarios: the new policies scenario, which assumes recent government policy commitments will be implemented in a cautious manner; the current policies scenario, which assumes no new policies are added to those in place by mid-2011; and the 450 scenario, which works back from the international goal of limiting the long-term increase in the global mean temperature to two degrees Celsius. Under the new policies scenario, it finds that primary energy demand will increase by one third from 2010 to 2035, with 90 per cent of growth in developing countries. China will consolidate its position as the world’s largest energy consumer – consuming nearly 70 per cent more than the USA by 2035.
Meanwhile, the outlook for oil demand will differ greatly depending on the three scenarios. Under the current policies scenario, oil demand reaches 107 million barrels per day by 2035; compared to 99million barrels per day in the new policies scenario; and 78million barrels per day in the 450 scenario.
Road transport is expected to continue to dominate total oil demand – in the new policies scenario it will be responsible for about 75 per cent of global transport oil demand by 2035; this is down only slightly from 77 per cent in 2010. Passenger light duty vehicles are the single largest component of transport oil consumption, although that is expected to shrink from around a 45 per cent share today to 39 per cent by 2035.
