Tuesday 31 January, 2012. The Green Piece Column.
As Ricardo, Volvo and other partners announce the successful completion of the first stage of testing in the SATRE (Safe Road Trains for the Environment) project (see story), we explore how it is autonomous or semi-autonomous driving that could be the biggest change we see in the car industry over the next fifty years or so; perhaps a bigger shake to the industry than the move to an electrified and diversely fuelled industry.
Could manually driving a car become blasé or simply a hobby in the same way as horse-riding is now a much enjoyed pastime for enthusiast, than a transportation necessity? Will we be merely passengers as driving increasingly becomes controlled and computerised task? It seems so, as the likes of Google engage in the first road trials of completely robotic cars.
Trouble and tedium
Already aspects of driving are becoming increasingly controlled, even systems such as the humble Brake Assist systems control and supplement the driver’s input.
Now firms such as Ford have developed systems which take this principle of assisting the driver a step further, by taking over certain aspects of driving, focusing particularly on the parts we find most tricky. With Ford, its Active Park Assist system means no more parallel parking as the system does the job for you. It is already available on Ford’s Focus model and will likely appear on other models before too long.
And it is first steps like this where we are likely to see automated driving starting to come in; wherever the driver finds trouble or tedium. Another area for automation for example could be in stop-start traffic situations, where the car need only crawl along, a boring task for the driver and an area of driving, when motorists tend to let their concentration stray. Imagine being stuck in such traffic and being able to legitimately call the office to tell them you are stuck in slow moving traffic, knowing the car is taking care of itself. No worries about fines for using your mobile phone or reading to pass the time, the car is under control.
It may be a long way from reality yet; but industry is already exploring the possibility.
Real-world testing
The biggest revelation in automated driving so far, occurred back in 2010, when Google revealed that it had already trialled clocked up to 140,000 miles of real-world testing using a fleet of seven automated cars, driven around public roads in California. For legal and security reasons these cars were manned at all times, but the cars successfully operated themselves using a series video cameras, radar sensors and a laser to ‘see’ their way around and used Google’s own maps to plan their route.
This brings us to one small problem with automated driving; the accuracy of satellite navigation. Even manned by humans with minds of their own, sat navs have led people to cliff edges, into deep water and down narrow footpaths. Of course the cars have sensors too, to prevent them from blindly following sat navs but there will of course, be teething troubles.
With Ricardo, the research is about assessing the potential to allow one professional driver to take control of a train of cars, allowing the individual car drivers to join the vehicle platoon as they wish, to free up their time and make highway journeys safer and more fuel efficient. Each driver could join the road train and tail-off when it suited them. With a human being still in charge of the vehicles, there would be less concern over the potential of machine error. Like assisted driving systems, such a model of automated driving is probably nearer to being applied in the real world than fully automated driving.
Even assuming that we can be fully assured that automated cars are safe, there are still other problems to iron out before we’ll see real world applications. There are a few legal implications to address even if we are approaching nearer to a stage of actual technical roll-out. What if there is a mechanical fault in the automation of a car? Who is responsible if that fault causes a crash? Can drivers with automated cars by-pass laws governing careless and inattentive driving? How do the police tell the difference between the motorist of a car being automatically driven and the driver inexcusably using his mobile phone while in control of a car? It’s these questions that still need to be sorted.
Nonetheless industry continues to explore the ideas and application of automate driving. Others investigating automated and semi-automated driving include BMW, Volkswagen, Bosch and Porsche.
The rise of city car clubs
If it is true that cars are set to become more about more about usership than ownership, as cities become more crowded, then perhaps it is necessary that cars become to become more autonomous. We’ve already seen a rising popularity of flexible car hire schemes and car clubs, with cities such as Vienna (see story) and Brussels (see story) making use of flexible car use schemes. If cars used under such systems used a high level of automated systems, it would make them easier and safer for different drivers to casually use, without each driver needing to familiarise themselves with each car and its different layout.
Automated driving and robotics technology could help improve energy efficiency of cars too, and as such would work well with electric and hybrid models, were maximising efficiency is important. Porsche, which is working on a semi-robotic system called ACC InnoDrive ,has already said that such as system will likely first be used on future electric and hybrid models, thanks to the systems usefulness in maximising fuel economy.
Disengaging from driving?
If driving becomes autonomous and without individual ownership, then it would seem that that motorists (if indeed you can call them that) would be almost entirely disengaged from their modes of transport. In the same way in which I care little what type of carriage is bought by the train company I use, cars might too, become goods that people passively consume. How do car makers market and compete and promote their models in such a market?
Fret-not though folks, although you can bet our cars are about to get smarter and more self-directed, you can bet we’re along way off the idea of completely disengaging from driving.
Faye Sunderland
