New road benefits forecasts are ‘inaccurate’
The Highways Agency is inaccurately forecasting the impact its road building and widening schemes have on traffic, air quality, noise pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, Campaign for Better Transport (CBT) concludes in a new report.
In its study, the CBT also criticised the agency for failing to learn from past failures in accurate forecasting. Since Ministers are dependent on accurate forecasts from the agency to determine how best to spend public money on transport, the reports ‘need to be reliable’ the charity said.
The agency reviews its past trunk road projects after one and five years. The charity investigated four of the most recent five year reviews known as a POPE reports (post-opening project evaluation); which consisted of the A6 Great Glen Bypass, the A650 Bingley Relief Road, the A11 Roundham Heath to Attleborough and the A27 Polegate Bypass. In each case, it found that the agency’s forecasting to be ‘generally inaccurate’ particularly in assessing future traffic levels and economic forecasts did not reflect the actual impact on local businesses. CO2, air quality and noise impacts of the schemes were generally worse than expected while walking, cycling and public transport did not improve, even on local roads where traffic had decreased.
The report entitled ‘Investing in road building: The Highways Agency’s billion pound traffic gamble’ cast major doubts on the value for money of recent road building projects as in each case the economic benefits were generally lower than predicted. Additionally the CBT found that in two-thirds of the bypasses studied, congestion was simply moved congestion elsewhere.
Richard George, roads and climate campaigner for the Campaign for Better Transport, said: “These reports should set off alarm bells for anyone contemplating major road building and for taxpayers who will eventually have to pay for them. In difficult economic times, taxpayers must know that their money is being well spent. Instead, they’re being fobbed off with half-baked calculations which are little better than guesswork. The Government cannot justify spending over £1 billion a year on road projects which their own reports show aren’t solving people’s transport problems.”
He added: “It’s time for a moratorium on new road building until the Highways Agency can show us what we’ll get for our money. Instead, let’s spend money on smaller scale, excellent value for money projects which can really help to tackle transport problems now.”
The report can be accessed from the CBT website.








