Just how much of an impact will fuel cell vehicles make on the market in the next 10 years? A new report from Pike Research has examined the issue.

It suggests that fuel cell vehicles will be commercially launched in most regions by 2014 and that cumulative sales of light duty fuel cell cars and trucks will pass the 2.8million vehicle mark globally by 2020.

The report suggests that research into fuel cell vehicles will reach $4billion this year and will climb to $5.3billion globally by 2016. Spending is expected to grow rapidly between 2015 and 2016 with automakers committing to introducing vehicles to the marketplace.

Pike Research also suggests that annually light vehicle fuel cell sales will total 669,597 by 2020 with Western Europe likely to lead the charge of sales with a 37 per cent share of the world market. The Asia Pacific region will be close behind, accounting for 36 per cent of sales; while North American sales will make up around 25 per cent of the total. Despite North America having a smaller share of the market overall, the US is still expected to be the largest single country market for fuel cell vehicles with China and Germany close behind.

The research also outlines five car manufacturers that are expected to lead the way for fuel cell vehicle sales – Daimler, Honda, General Motors, Hyundai and Toyota. Currently, it is these manufacturers that have the largest fleets of fuel cell vehicles.

According to Dave Hurst of Pike Research, fuel cell vehicles should receive “substantial support from the largest automakers” and now the pressure is on both governments and gas companies to ensure hydrogen fuelling stations are in place to support the emerging market.

As part of South Wales’ new status as a Low Carbon Economic Area (LCEA), the M4 is set to be transformed into a ‘hydrogen highway’.

That is according to the BBC, following the announcement today by Lord Hunt that South Wales is set to become a hub of development for hydrogen technologies.

The Minister of State for Energy and Climate Change visited the University of Glamorgan this morning to announce the investment into local projects for developing hydrogen refuelling technology as well as natural gas/biogas facilities.

One of the biggest obstacles to the wider adoption of hydrogen fuelled vehicles is a lack of refuelling infrastructure. The new investment in South Wales will see the development of the UK’s longest hydrogen refuelling corridors expected to span from refuelling points in Wales through Swindon and London and extending into the Midlands.

Wales already has two multi-fuel filling facilities in south Wales, at Baglan and Treforest.

While some sceptics remain critical of hydrogen as a fuel for transport- at the moment it is expensive to produce and difficult to store- others including environmental group, Friends of the Earth welcome the news.

Gordon James, director of Friends of the Earth Cymru told the broadcaster: "This is excellent news. It will help reduce the greenhouse gas emissions for the transport sector which is responsible for about 12 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions in Wales.

"It will also help develop the green economy in Wales. It shows that Wales is prepared to take the lead in this area, which is something we can proud of,” he added.

Hydrogen as a fuel also needs to be produced from another energy source. At the moment, hydrogen is released by steaming natural gas, meaning that it has a fossil-fuel source. Mr James believes that a vital part of this project will be to ensure that the hydrogen is produced from a renewable energy source instead.

In total, the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) is to invest £7.2 million into the development of hydrogen and fuel cell technology within the area.

The Government has announced two new Low Carbon Economic Areas (LCEA), as part of Britain’s push to become a leading force in the development of green technologies.

Yesterday it was announced the West Midlands would be designated as an area specifically focused around leading the automotive industry towards producing low carbon vehicles. The announcement came as Business Secretary Lord Mandelson visited the University of Warwick and unveiled a new £19 million fund for research and development of new greener vehicles.

Visiting the International Manufacturing Centre at the university  to launch the LCEA, Lord Mandelson said: “I want to see the Midlands help the UK to lead the global automotive industry in the transition from conventional to low carbon vehicle technologies. The LCEA will send a clear signal to the global market about the Midlands’ strengths in advanced automotive engineering.

“The move towards a low carbon economy presents huge opportunities. This new funding will help secure the Midlands’ 10,000 existing car industry jobs, by helping transform them into the green car jobs of the future.”   

Today, Lord Hunt the Minister of State for Energy and Climate Change announced that South Wales was to play a similar role as an LCEA, only its role will focus on becoming a  leading centre in the development of hydrogen energy.

Visiting the University of Glamorgan, Lord Hunt announced a £7.2 million funding for the development of hydrogen and fuel cell technology of which the university will take a share.

As part of this, the University of Glamorgan announced that it is investing £6.3m of its own funds to develop new processes, products and services as part of the CymruH2Wales project. It will create 23 new research staff over the next three years and a further 63 permanent jobs in hydrogen energy.

Lord Hunt said: “Cleaning up our energy supply and the fuel we use for transport will give the UK the opportunity to develop the low carbon industries of the future.  Fuel cells and hydrogen can play a key role in cutting CO2 emissions and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. 

“Through this boost for hydrogen, innovative businesses like Johnson Matthey are well placed to benefit from the move to low carbon. I congratulate them on their funding award and thank them for this contribution to tackling climate change.”

There was a further boost for the University of Glamorgan when Lord Hunt revealed that it was a winner of a share of £500,000 from the latest round of the Department for Transport’s grants to encourage refuelling or recharging stations for alternative fuels. The University will use its funding to build a new multi-fuel filling station at its Pontypridd campus and further develop its existing facility at its Hydrogen Centre in Baglan.

In total the UK now has six LCEAs, which also include the South West as a centre for wave and tidal energy, the North East as a centre for ultra low carbon vehicles, the North West and Yorkshire in its focus on developing a UK civil nuclear supply chain and Greater Manchester on creating a greener built environment.

Honda has begun testing a solar-powered hydrogen refuelling device for home use, in the hope that the prototype could help solve a global lack of refuelling infrastructure for hydrogen cars.

The carmaker, which is leasing its FCX Clarity hydrogen-fuel cell car in California, is now testing the solar-powered pump at it U.S. headquarters also based in California.

According to The Detroit News, the device makes half a kilogram of hydrogen gas per day, enough for an average daily commute. The hydrogen fuel is generated from water and electricity produced by 6 kilowatts of rooftop solar panels.
Plans by Honda to sell and develop hydrogen-fuelled cars have stalled in the United States due to a lack of fuel stations, high costs and a diversion of federal funds towards electric-powered cars.

Currently Honda runs a limited lease programme of its FCX Clarity fuel cell sedan to drivers in the Los Angeles because the city has some hydrogen refuelling stations. Actress, Jamie Lee Curtis is one of the limited numbers of people who have been lucky enough to lease the model, believed to cost around $600 a month.

Honda has yet to confirm how much the Solar Hydrogen Station will cost and when it will be available, although the device is expected to be cheaper and smaller than a previous solar-powered fuel pump tested in California. It is designed for a slow, overnight refill to hold down ‘costs and complexity’, the company said in an email statement to the newspaper.

Carmakers developing hydrogen-fuelled vehicles include BMW, Toyota and GM but so far costs and a lack of refuelling infrastructure have been two major obstacles to the widespread adoption of the ‘zero emission’ technology.

The North American International Auto Show has marked the debut of a host of exciting new green car concepts, but few were as eagerly anticipated as Honda’s new CR-Z hybrid, dubbed the world’s first hybrid sports car. Yet despite its commitment to advancing electromotive technologies, Honda CEO and President Takanobu Ito was keen to promote the long-term benefits of a different technology (see article).

“We continue to believe that a fuel cell electric vehicle is the ultimate solution to reduce CO2 emissions,” he said. “The development cost must come down and there must be a major expansion of the hydrogen fuelling infrastructure. But make no mistake, as a vehicle, the Honda FCX Clarity is ready now. Further, Honda is unique in making long-term investments to develop the refuelling infrastructure for alternative fuel vehicles.”

So can fuel cell vehicles really break into the mainstream?

Big name manufacturers backing fuel cells

Despite fuel cell vehicles suffering a number of funding setbacks last year that we examined in our article “Why we shouldn’t give up on fuel cells”, it now seems that major car manufacturers are once again willing to put their faith in hydrogen powered vehicles.

Nissan has delivered its first hydrogen X-Trail to a soft drinks company in California (see article). The vehicle, which is based on the X-Trail SUV, is fitted with a 90kW compact fuel cell stack, a compact lithium-ion battery and a high pressure hydrogen storage system. Versions of the car are said to be capable of 90mph and a cruising range of 300miles.

Toyota too has expanded its fuel cell demonstration program in the US placing vehicles with government agencies, universities and private companies in California and New York with the intention of adding more regional partners as more hydrogen stations are added. According to Irv Miller, Toyota Motor Sales group vice president of environmental and public affairs, the plan is to come to market in 2015 “or earlier” and he believes Toyota “will not be alone” in the fuel cell marketplace.

And if you thought it was just the Japanese that are latching on to the technology then think again – PSA Peugeot Citroen presented a demonstrator with the FiSyPAC hydrogen fuel cell range extender system at a show in Lyon, France, in December having successfully quadrupled the fuel cell’s lifespan and increased its efficiency by 20 per cent since work on the project began in 2006 (see article).

Why stumbling blocks remain

Despite a renewed commitment to the technology from major manufacturers, there are still a number of hurdles to overcome before hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can prosper – a point that was highlighted by Revolve Technologies’ technical director Paul Turner last week (see article).

During its efforts to convert Ford Transit vehicles to run on hydrogen fuel, the company has encountered not only technological problems but legislative ones too. With no laws yet governing the use of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, the Transits are technically unapproved for the UK’s roads and the company is now working closely with the Department of Transport to establish legislation relating to the storage, handling and dispensing of the fuel.

There remains a greater need too, for more hydrogen fuelling infrastructure. Though fuelling stations have emerged, such as through the California Hydrogen Highway program; the hydrogen highway between Mantova, Italy and Munich, Germany; and even the first hydrogen station in the UK at the University of Birmingham; progress remains comparatively slow. The bulk of Government funding, in the US and UK in particular, appears focused on promoting electric vehicles and building recharging points with hydrogen technology taking a back seat.

Our verdict

It would appear that hydrogen fuel cell technology is at something of a crossroads. Once seen as the natural successor to internal combustion engines, the technology fell by the wayside as funding was pumped into electric vehicles with criticisms focusing on the high costs of fuel cells and the lack of infrastructure.

However, as research and development programmes have continued there appears to be renewed faith in the technology from the leading manufacturers. With it now possible to produce hydrogen from water using renewable energy it could even be argued that fuel cell cars are a more environmentally friendly prospect than electric vehicles which still rely on fossil fuels for the bulk of their electricity production.

The key then as to whether the technology sinks or swims is whether there is serious backing from governments in the developed and developing worlds through funding and incentive programmes. We are on the brink of an electric car breakthrough thanks largely to government support: now the question remains as to whether hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be afforded the same opportunities.

Faye Sunderland

Forget electric or hydrogen-fuelled cars, according to one Oxford University study, ‘drastic downscaling’ of the size and weight of conventional petrol and diesel cars is the best way to reduce emissions right now.

The report ‘Future of Mobility Roadmap’ produced by the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment and edited by Sir David King, the Government’s former chief scientific advisor, suggests that we should not rely on car manufacturers producing hydrogen or battery-powered vehicles in the next decade.

It concludes that electric and hydrogen vehicles are likely to remain niche products for many years because of limited battery life and the high cost of platinum, which is needed for the catalysts in hydrogen fuelled cars.

Lead author Dr Oliver Inderwildi urges the government to impose higher taxes on drivers of large, inefficient vehicles and reinvest the money in better public transport and measures to get more people cycling and walking.

Dr Inderwildi says: ‘There is ample opportunity for emissions reductions by further improvements of currently available technology combined with a change in user habits.’

Rather than rely on the manufacturers to provide the ‘silver bullet’ solution to cut transport emissions, the report recommends behavioural change, urging consumers to influence manufacturers through their buying power. Manufacturers are more likely to produce smaller vehicles if customers opt not to buy larger, heavier vehicles with higher carbon emissions.

The report assesses the potential for low carbon transport on land, by air and sea and finds that greener technologies could significantly cut emissions from aircraft and shipping but incentives and regulation will be needed to encourage users to switch to low-carbon forms of transport.

It highlights algae-based biofuels as a means of significantly cutting transport emissions in the future and points out the limitations of biofuels as an alternative because of land shortages and food security concerns. First generation biofuels, derived from food stocks, ‘have proved the viability of such fuels, but remain a local solution, as in Brazil,’ it says.

Dr Inderwildi sees electric and diesel rail systems as the way forward in bringing down transport emissions but says there are disadvantages in the resulting infrastructure costs and lack of flexibility in route planning. Even so, reducing the carbon footprint of cars and replacing domestic flights with high speed rail could still produce ‘drastic emissions savings’.

The study warns that action must be taken immediately to have any impact on climate change because of the long lifetime of transport fleets and subsequent delays in technological impact.
‘Many technological options are already available and, in combination with infrastructure investments, [will] support the economy, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and provide other long-term benefits,’ says the report.

The Government needs to change the law to enable the use of hydrogen-fuelled cars, says Revolve Technologies, one the UK’s leading providers of advanced automotive engineering solutions.

In its work converting Ford Transit vans to run on hydrogen fuel, Revolve has found that it is not just technological boundaries but legislative ones too which have been pushed into new ground. As a result, Revolve has begun working with the Department for Transport (DfT)  and other bodies to develop new legislation to support the use of hydrogen as a vehicle fuel. 

Currently collaborating with Cenex, the Government agency for the development of low carbon transport technologies, Revolve is set to deliver three of these adapted Transit vans to the Post Office for trial service in the near future.

However with no laws yet governing the use of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles means that technically these adapted Transits remain unapproved for use on UK roads.

According to the firm, existing legislation fails to cover the different requirements of hydrogen and, through its specific listing of conventional fuels, blocks the use of new fuel types.

Paul Turner, Revolve’s Technical Director, commented: “We didn’t realize when we began the hydrogen programme that we were pioneering not just a new technology but new legislation too. We have worked closely with a number of Government departments to identify key issues and help them to develop a new series of regulations which can accommodate the safe storage, handling, dispensing and use of this exciting new carbon free fuel”.

While stating that it understands electric vehicle technology as well as anyone, and unveiling its new CR-Z hybrid sports car, Honda still believes that fuel cells are the future.

Honda Motor President and CEO Takanobu Ito, speaking at the Detroit Motor Show, outlined how the company has taken up the challenge to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by advancing various electromotive technologies. He referenced the development of the EV Plus electric vehicle in the 1990s and leasing to individual customers in the California area.

However, he also stated that a fuel cell electric vehicle is “the ultimate solution to reducing CO2 emissions”. He said that the development cost must come down and there must be a major expansion of hydrogen refuelling infrastructure, but, he said, the Honda FCX Clarity is “ready now” and Honda is making long-term investments to develop infrastructure for alternative fuel cell vehicles.

He revealed that this month the company will begin operation of a next-generation solar hydrogen station at its Los Angeles Research and Development Centre – one that has the potential to fuel the ultimate eco-car.

He stated however, that in the near term, the most important approach is to expand the use of hybrid electric vehicles and the company will apply hybrid systems that are “compact, lightweight and affordable to a wider range of products in the near future”.

A new project has ushered water powered vehicles even closer to becoming a practical reality as clean technology provider Ultra Green announced a new deal to provide funding for the Electro Hydrogen Generator technology.

Known as EHG Technology, and the brainchild of OM Energy Ltd, it converts waste energy in an engine’s exhaust to generate ordinary water with a converter then extracting hydrogen from the water to use as a fuel. It mixes hydrogen and conventional fuels in that there is no tank for the hydrogen and it stops being produced when the engine is switched off. The existing design runs on 80 per cent conventional fuel and 20 per cent hydrogen.

Thanks to the partnership between OM Energy and Ultra Green, a retrofit solution will be developed that can be introduced into existing vehicles or be used by manufacturers in new engine designs.

According to Ultra Green chairman Tony Blakey, anticipated emission reductions are approximately 30 per cent while fuel efficiency increases by 20 per cent.

“The EHG technology is one which will benefit many markets, cutting fuel use in private and public transport, generators and industrial engines,” he said.

“Initially we are targeting private and public vehicle industries to develop a solution to help them and the industry’s fuel providers meet the stringent new EU and US CAFE emission and fuel efficiency requirements due for implementation in 2013.

“However, we foresee ‘on demand’ Electro Hydrogen Generation as the obvious interim step before pure hydrogen fuel becomes readily available on the forecourt.

“The collaboration between OM and Ultra Green is well positioned to develop solutions with new units on show in the spring of 2010.”

Mercedes-Benz has confirmed production of the B-Class Fuel CELL vehicle.

The hydrogen-run car is initially to produce 200 models which will be delivered to customers in Europe and the US from spring 2010 according to The Independent.

On display at the Copenhagen summit this week, the B-Class F-Cell is expected to have a range up to 248 miles and a top speed of around 100 mph. The car is run through an electric drive system powered by a fuel cell. A hydrogen fuel tank supplies the fuel cell which generates the electrical power on board. The only emissions are pure water.

According to the national newspaper, the vehicle will also be able to start at temperatures as low as -25°C, traditionally an area of concern with fuel-cells, which as hydrogen vapors are at risk of solidifying below freezing point. The B-Class overcomes this by taking electrical energy from an on-board battery as it warms up in cold temperatures.

Mercedes-Benz will be the second only mainstream carmaker to make a full production fuel cell car, after Honda first made the FCX Clarity, which is currently available for sale or lease in small numbers in the US and Japan.

Hydrogen fuel cell cars have been slow to reach the market, as carmakers are still in the process of developing and refining the technology to run vehicles on the fuel, while a lack of refuelling infrastructure has also hampered its introduction to the roads.